Task	Outcome	Prob.	E[hours]	res.val.	know.val.	val/1000h	with planning
Ensembles for average-case complexity	Expectation		324	1.42	0.18	5.0	5.0
	Optimistic	0.30	312	3.00	0.20	10.2
	Pessimistic	0.30	321	1.00	0.18	3.7
	Some progress	0.40	333	0.55	0.17	2.1
Generalizing PCP to other classes	Expectation		375	1.80	0.23	5.4	5.4
	Optimistic	0.20	375	5.00	0.23	14.0
	Pessimistic	0.80	375	1.00	0.23	3.3
Greedy superstring conjecture	Expectation		116	0.38	0.05	2.2	5.7
	Solve	0.25	225	1.50	0.08	7.0
	Nothing	0.75	80	0.01	0.03	0.5
P != PSPACE	Expectation		98	0.11	0.04	1.1	5.2
	Solve	0.00	400	40.00	0.25	100.6
	Insights	0.20	171	0.50	0.08	3.4
	Nothing	0.80	80	0.01	0.03	0.5
Refuting random 3SAT	Expectation		220	1.29	0.08	4.7	6.3
	Prove	0.10	343	8.00	0.13	23.7
	Refute	0.07	333	1.00	0.13	3.4
	Some progress	0.60	240	0.70	0.08	3.3
	Nothing	0.23	80	0.01	0.03	0.5
Study articles	Expectation		62	0.00	0.07	1.1	5.8
	Ordinary progress	1.00	62	0.00	0.07	1.1
Sums of nonnegative	Expectation		93	0.65	0.07	7.3	6.7
	Solve	0.50	130	1.00	0.08	8.3
	Some progress	0.50	56	0.30	0.05	6.3
Unique Games Conjecture	Expectation		142	1.01	0.08	4.6	7.0
	Prove	0.04	311	10.00	0.17	32.7
	Refute	0.01	367	3.00	0.17	8.6
	Progress	0.38	212	1.50	0.13	7.7
	Nothing	0.57	80	0.01	0.03	0.5